Overview
ADAA is an open, rules-based multi-asset portfolio strategy that combines several dynamic allocation rules into one operational portfolio. The design diversifies portfolio decisions, not only the assets those decisions ultimately hold.
The current implementation blends five complementary sleeves across an 18-ETF opportunity set. The live dashboard exposes the official monthly decision, current portfolio drift, and a provisional intramonth preview, while the supporting research evidence remains separately versioned.
Official target, current drift, and preview are shown separately
The live dashboard separates the completed month-end target from mark-to-market drift and from a provisional estimate of the next target. This keeps a partial-month preview from being mistaken for an official portfolio decision.
Official Decision
The latest completed month-end target, effective from the first common trading-day close after month-end.
Current MTD
Mark-to-market drift of the official portfolio since that execution point. It does not create a new target.
Intramonth Preview
A provisional next-target estimate using the latest available month-to-date data. It may change before month-end and is not an official target.
Five complementary allocation sleeves
The current top-level weights are HAA 25%, BAA 15%, ADM 17.5%, FAA 17.5%, and LAA 25%. The design objective is decision diversification: each sleeve should contribute a meaningfully different allocation role rather than duplicate the same market view under a different label.
Regime-aware momentum
Uses canary and momentum signals to shift portfolio exposure across risk and defensive assets.
Aggressive balanced allocation
Adjusts risk exposure across market regimes while preserving a distinct allocation role within the composite.
Accelerating dual momentum
Adds a broader cross-asset momentum sleeve that emphasizes both relative strength and momentum change.
Flexible asset allocation
Combines momentum with volatility- and correlation-aware ranking inputs across the investable set.
Persistent allocation anchor
Provides a comparatively stable allocation component intended to moderate transitions across changing regimes.
Live operation and versioned research remain distinct
ADAA Live System
The live implementation refreshes current data and monitoring views, including portfolio state, drift, FX diagnostics, allocation history, and the intramonth preview.
Open Live DashboardDiversify the Decisions, Not Just the Assets
Public Working Paper v1.34 documents the research question, historical evidence, robustness, implementation analysis, and Decision Diversification framework. The paper remains fixed even as the live system changes.
Open Research PageMethods used in this system
These companion articles explain methods used directly in the system or needed to interpret its validation and outputs.
Portfolio Backtesting and Rebalancing
Explains the portfolio accounting, weight drift, monthly rebalancing, turnover conventions, and next-period timing needed to interpret the portfolio paths used in this research.
Turnover, Transaction Costs, and Net Performance
Explains drift-aware turnover, transaction-cost conventions, and the mapping from before-cost portfolio performance to performance net of modeled transaction costs.
Momentum and Trend Signals
Explains how momentum and trend signals are defined, timed, and stress-tested across lookback choices before they are translated into portfolio decisions.
Strategy Similarity and Decision Diversification
Explains how return similarity differs from similarity in what strategies hold, when they change, and how strongly they change risk exposure.
Information Timing, Data Vintages, and Real-Time Macro Data
Explains why reference periods, release dates, vintage labels, actual availability, revisions, and forecast cutoffs must be kept distinct in macroeconomic research.
Resources & documentation
Public resources are separated by purpose: the live dashboard for current operation, the Investment Research page and SSRN paper for versioned evidence, the replication release and DOI for reproducibility, and Quantitative Methods for reusable methodology.